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*No, we are not one of the Frye Guys, this is just a great pic that had to be used.
"faine" wrote: What if Winslow being out until June is just a smoke screen to convince other teams that Cleveland drafting CJ is a very real possiblity?
Russ: I actually had that same thought today... If it's true, then Savage is a frickin' genius and would probably make more money playing in the World Series of Poker.
Kevin: only if trading down is the best way to improve the team. and i am not sure of that. the draft, the inherant nature of the draft is risk, especially at the very top - so the logical reaction is to safeguard your risk and trade down acquiring less regarded/less hearlded players, but multiple assests, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOURE FRIGHTENINGLY PERCHED AT THE VERY TOP.
the safe way to play it is playing small ball - hitting multiple singles, not one big swing for the fence. in a draft like this with seemingly less sure things, trading down makes perfectly logical sense, but everyone wants to trade down, practially every year and few are lucky enough to find suckers/suitors to do it with. and weve been burned so bad before, we just want to play it safe. but we cant do that. At no. 3, we need the best offensive weapon to take the next step.
Russ: Bottom line is this... if K2's recovery is really in question, there is no reason CJ shouldn't be at the top of our draft board. If some other team wants to give us a 2nd rounder and more to flip flop top 10 picks, I'm all for it. If not, he should be the pick.
Kevin:Bottom line is this, at the risk of sounding obvious and repititive. phil has one objective. to figure out who these guys are.
how certain is he that cj michael irvin? is ap=eddie george or kijana carter? or is he eric dickerson? is jt robert gallery or is he jonathan ogden? is brady quinn ron pawlus, ryan leaf, phillip rivers, tim couch or peyton manning/kyle brady?
mel kiper and we can guess all we want but ultimatly this is what determines our draft. yes the chips are all in for romeo and maybe even phil with this draft. but that cant make him play it safe and trade down. maybe there's a sucker in the lower half of the top 10. but i got a feeling people are just going to stay put where they are. there's too much at stake, and if you're trading up on top of taking a gamble, then you're gambling twice. look at how foolish the chargers have made the giants over eli. or how the chargers have made the falcons look over ron mexico. how dumb was butch to give up a second to move up one spot for k2?
the logic to trade down requires us finding the team who is considering the opposite logic/gameplan , a team who wants to trade up. ying needs yang. its not gonna happen to us in this draft.
staying put and drafting is risky. trading up and drafting is twice as risky.
Also, i dont want to be the texans, passing on the RB or QB to take the safe d-lineman. you gotta figure out who these guys are and not be an insecure muthagrabba and PICK HIM. i think savage will do this.
other factors to consider, free agency and as you mentioned, the status of our weapons on the roster, brey and k2, as well as the qb situation. when you consider the offensive lineman we can get in free agency and round two and even three, i think this rules out taking JT.
if yer phil savage and you know 100% AP was going to be eddie george and CJ was michael irvin, who would you take?
i think you take eddie george because looking at this roster, breylon has a better chance of delivering for you than rueben and you live to make another pick at wr or TE, depending on how brey and k2 pan out.
realistically, it's TBD how healthy AP runs and how he looks in the next two months. remember, phil loves OK guys. But i think grossi is right. Savage loves JR and randy may have mistakenly tipped his hand, but i think grossi's right, he's not going to be at no. 3.
however, if the raiders dont draft russell, i think its almost safe to assume the lions pass on him and he's there at no. 3. millen cant be dumb enough to take a risk like russell. Millen is dumb but he just doesnt have the intelligence to evaluate JR. After all these years, Millen is finally smart enough to know he's dumb. Al davis will take the chance, Davis is the wild card in this draft. millen will play it safe. he's a goddamn penn state linebacker from the raiders for god's sake. Think about it, just like red right 88, the freaking raiders are determining our fate.
were not picking no. 1, or 2, but no. 3. it would be really worthwhile to figure ourtwho's going to be off the board. there's a very good chance CJ goes two, and maybe even no. 1. i'd say better than 50/50 he's not even there at no. 3.
chances are very very good the draft goes like this:
1.) probably (50/50) JR, (30/70) possibly CJ, and maybe even (20/80) AP
2.) probably Thomas, possibly AP and maybe even BQ (millen thinks he is the safer qb pick)
3.) it wouldnt be shocking if russell and Thomas were off the board. however chances are AP or CJ go 1 or two.
my major hypothisis/most realistic scenario, is - i think it's almost obvious that one of the top two teams surprise us and take ap or cj right ahead of us. the more i think about it the more certain i am that cj or ap are gone when we pick. somebody is going to want one of those two weapons, and they're more certain than the qbs.
If phil thinks JR is the guy, i trust him. because ultimatly, this draft is going to make or break phil and i'm eager to find out. so i really think its safe to assume we dont want quinn, and after hearing how bad savage wants jr on grossi's podcast, my mind is made up. My guess is, Sav's choice will come down to a combination of :
either CJ or AP AND either JR or Thomas
If it's CJ or Thomas - Savage's choice is CJ
AP or Thomas - Savage's choice is AP
CJ or JR - his choice is JR
AP or JR - his choice is JR
PS - btw by chance, if it's AP or CJ, he goes AP and if it's JR or thomas, obvioulsy i think savage would take JR.
